I know this is cheating but I have wasted too much time trying to correct my last blog's reference to Financial Mail which should in fact read BUSINESS DAY
SO TO KEEP UP MY BLOGGING AND TRY TO INTEREST ALL THOSE CURIOUS FOLK OUT THERE HERE IS THE PIECE I HAVE HAD PUBLISHED YESTERDAYS THE ZIMBABWEAN:
As each day brings new disasters for Zimbabwe, all of them entirely expected but, paradoxically, still surprising, nothing but a malevolent glare has remained embedded in my imagination as I scour it for words of hope. The country’s self-destructive madness has gone on and on, paralysing watchers and victims alike.
When every other avenue of protest was ruthlessly closed, we looked South for our salvation but until this month, nothing moved. Only `quiet diplomacy’ emanated from that direction. But wait a minute! Could the quietness have been a clever disguise for time buying while a successful strategy for Robert Mugabe’s ZANU (PF)’s survival could be worked out?
When reports like “Mbeki, has been working to bring the Zimbabwean leader and the opposition to the table to cobble up a settlement to end the country’s political and economic crisis” are repeated, all sorts of contradictions come to mind.
True, there has, most recently been the conditionality of the ruling party talking to the MDC before any money bale out for the IMF could be delivered. There has been the Mnangagwa as emissary moment, the Tsholtsho/Moyo turnaround - things like that. But the most significant move was last Thursday’s command performance of the MDC’s Sibanda/Ncube faction in the Tshwane office of President Mbeki. They were there, it seems, because they are willing to go along with next month’s elections to a new Senate. (at the time of writing, the outcome of the meeting is not known).
The conventional wisdom among ZANU (PF)’s critics is that the Senate is a kind of bribe – a blatant splitting and weakening of the opposition. Looked at another way, It could just possibly be a part of a different, far more subtle plan. Try this:
· Fact: Morgan Tsvangirai has openly declared his hostility to South Africa as an honest broker and will not countenance any alliance with ZANU (PF);
· fact: Mbeki has expressed the wish that the MDC should be drawn into such an alliance with ZANU (PF) to break the political logjam in Zimbabwe and its damaging consequences for South Africa;
· fact: exhausted MDC leaders have both good and bad reasons for blindly endorsing a Senate.
· fact: the ground for ensuring that only a few opposition members enter the upper house (at the behest of Mugabe’s officials) has been well-prepared – Murambatsvina, the powers of the nomination court to `pick and choose’ who (outside of the ruling party) shall be allowed to contest for Senate seats, the delimitation exercise (Dr Reginald Matshaba-Hove, chairman of the Zimbabwe Election Support Network, has stated that Zanu PF has already rigged the upcoming senate poll, making any MDC participation meaningless).. and so on‘
From President Mbeki’s point of view, one can only speculate:
· He would welcome the success of the alliance he has been seeking.
· He would not welcome any electoral success of a former Trade Union (ZCTU) leader (Tsvangirai) which might lead to unseating Mugabe. His country’s COSATU is in sympathy with the suffering of its counterparts in Zimbabwe and the pattern (remember Zambia) might be repeated in SA (There was no official protest from SA’s government at COSATU’s rude treatment by Zimbabwe’s border officials when the organization attempted to enter the country).
· He must be seen to be in solidarity with Africa’s hero of liberation (Mugabe) and a ZANU (PF)/MDC alliance would provide an excellent face saver for Mbeki and the continent’s African brotherhood.
· NEPAD, too long delayed in delivery might at last become viable. His African `renaissance’ plans (whatever they are) might recommence.
· He would remain firmly (and indefinitely) in power in South Africa.
The claim, by unnamed sources that “Mbeki now fears his project to broker a negotiated solution that could bring Zimbabwe out of isolation could be derailed if the MDC continues bickering or even splits deserves very close scrutiny. .
How many years is it since our powerful southern neighbour, Mbeki, stood square shouldered before Zimbabweans, assembled in an orderly, admiring crowd at Harare’s show grounds? His words then made us feel that somehow, some day, we would get a helping hand from him. Perhaps we will. But maybe it will not be the kind of help we need. How exhilarating, how liberating if I were to be proved wrong.
ENDS
Copyright © 2004 Diana Mitchell
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