Bronwen Maddox in The Times today quoted Richard Dowden saying "a deal stitched up by Mugabe, Mutambara and Mbeki isn't going to stick". This is true but somewhere along the line, the media had fallen, initially, for the line that on Tuesday night, Mutambara " struck a deal for a coalition government with Arthur Mutambara, leader of a faction of the MDC" (Maddox).
Like all Zimbabweans, expat and the rest, I have been keeping a sharp eye on President Thabo Mbeki's power-brokering in Harare. I have it on good authority - from both factions of the MDC - that Arthur Mutambara had struck no "deal". My own understanding is that he had agreed to a "key issue" (his words) in the ongoing negotiations, one which did not have Tsvangirai's agreement. My informant revealed that it was Munangagwa giving out calculated disinformation, (as I would assume, to an eager press) who claimed that they - Mugabe's lot - had done a deal with Mutambara. There was some confusion because Mutambara was saying different things to different journalists - he is, after all, quite new to international negotiations. It is clear that he is kept firmly in line by his supporters.
With Munangagwa's shadow cast 0n the curtained stage, we should be wary of a plot to pour poison into the ears of those who so desperately need to know when the tragic show called Zimbabwe will end. We can be sure that Munangagwa has good reason to deceive, being the front man for the JOC. Those overfed fat cats running the military expect him to hang on to the key to the Congo larder as well as Zanu (PF)'s licence to plunder what is left of Zimbabwe's assets.
The bait offered to Mutambara Maddox has made clear, would be attractive enough on the face of it. On paper he can dictate the balance of power: Mugabe's Zanu PF party, together with Mutabara's MDC faction would hold 109 seats in the March 29 elected Parliament, to Tsvangirai's 100.
Today's news that Tsvangirai has had his passport confiscated as he prepared to depart for South Africa is an ominous sign. It is clear that he was planning to brief international supporters and /or to contact SADC leaders who will meet this week-end to hear from their Chairman whose mission to settle the Zimbabwe issue has not yet succeeded. Speculation on all this continues, drearily and wearyingly, back at square one.
A last thought: those of us with long memories can look back at a "deal" that the country's previous, white, colonial government of Zimbabwe Rhodesia struck with several factions of black nationalist politicians leaders (predominently Bishop Muzorewa) in the March 3 1978 transitional government agreement. It didn't stick because it became clear that the number of blacks occupying seats in Parliament did not amount to a grip on power. The military, the civil service, the police and the security branch was where the power lay - then as now.
Copyright © 2004 Diana Mitchell
No comments:
Post a Comment